Supply and Demand Pattern of Steel Market Reshaped in Q4 2025: Policy Drive and Demand Recovery Jointly Boost Industry Stability

[Industry Dynamics] Entering the fourth quarter of 2025, China's steel market has gradually shaken off the previous volatile trend, showing a sound development pattern of "two-way optimization of supply and demand and steady price recovery". According to the latest data from domestic bulk commodity monitoring institutions, since October, the cumulative price increase of major steel products such as domestic rebar and hot-rolled coil has reached 5.2%, the operating rate of steel mills has risen to 78.3%, and market confidence has continued to recover. The precise efforts on the policy front and the gradual release of downstream demand have become the core driving forces for the stable and positive development of the steel market.

At the policy level, the state has recently issued a number of intensive policies to stabilize growth and promote infrastructure construction, providing solid support for steel demand. Meanwhile, the rapid development of emerging industries such as high-end equipment manufacturing and new energy vehicles in the industrial sector has driven the demand for high-end steel products with high strength and corrosion resistance to increase by 12.6% year-on-year. In addition, the continuous implementation of environmental protection policies has accelerated the industry transformation process, eliminated backward production capacity at a faster pace, and further increased the market share of leading steel enterprises.

       Regarding the subsequent market trend, insiders said that the steel market will continue its recovery trend in the short term, but it is necessary to pay attention to uncertain factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices and global economic recovery. In the long run, with the continuous advancement of China's manufacturing upgrading and new infrastructure construction, high-end steel and green steel will become the core direction of the industry's development, and enterprises with technological and environmental advantages will usher in more development opportunities. It is recommended that enterprises in the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain reasonably grasp the market rhythm, optimize inventory management, and achieve stable operations.