Since the start of 2026, China's domestic wire rod market has shown a differentiated trend characterized by "strong policy expectations alongside weak off-season demand". Meanwhile, shifts in the international market structure have injected new variables into the industry's development. Domestically, leading steel mills have raised their quotations supported by higher costs, yet spot transactions have remained lackluster due to the traditional off-season. Internationally, the differentiated global infrastructure demand, adjustments in trade patterns, and optimization of China's export structure are collectively reshaping the internal and external circulation dynamics of the wire rod market.
In terms of market performance, steel mill price hikes have not directly driven synchronous increases in domestic spot prices. As of January 8th, the domestic spot wire rod market has exhibited a slight correction trend. Traders are mainly shipping according to demand, while downstream construction sites have seen reduced operating rates due to low temperatures, resulting in insufficient demand release. This has led to a prominent market sentiment of "buying on rallies but avoiding declines". The international market, however, has displayed distinct characteristics. According to the latest industry data, China's steel wire rod exports reached 250,000 tons with an export value of 198 million US dollars in November 2025, achieving both volume and price growth compared to October. Among these, countries along the "Belt and Road" have become the main export destinations. Emerging economies in Southeast Asia, Africa, and other regions continue to release sustained demand for medium and low-strength wire rod amid large-scale urbanization processes. In the futures market, although the main contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil have pulled back after hitting highs, long positions have continued to increase, reflecting market expectations for demand recovery following the commencement of domestic and international infrastructure projects.
Industry analysis indicates that the wire rod market will remain in an oscillatory adjustment phase in the short term, with the pace of recovery emerging as a key influencing factor. The domestic market awaits substantial demand release from the large-scale resumption of construction site operations in spring, while the international market is expected to achieve steady growth driven by infrastructure investments in emerging economies. Current core market concerns include not only the progress of domestic infrastructure project implementation and the intensity of steel mill production cuts but also the global economic recovery trajectory, changes in international trade policies, and the expansion of China's high-end wire rod exports. In the long run, as the global wire rod market transitions toward "high quality and high performance", the export growth potential of special wire rod products such as high-strength and corrosion-resistant variants will become further prominent, serving as a crucial direction for the industry to break through growth bottlenecks.
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